Alas, California also claims the top spots on our newest list: Cities Where The Economy May Get Worse. Riverside ranked No. 1 thanks to a high unemployment rate (13.9%) coupled with weak job growth, a hefty number of mortgage loans 90 days or more delinquent (8.21% of all loans) and a projected migration pattern that finds 4,000 residents expected to leave the area this year.
Other Golden State metros on the list: Stockton at No. 2, Los Angeles at No. 4, Bakersfield at No. 5, San Francisco at No. 6 and Sacramento at No. 7. All of these cities have double-digit unemployment rates and paltry job growth projections. All except LA have housing markets in which prices continue to decline or remain stagnant.
In Pictures: Cities Where Economies Are Getting Worse
“Struggling housing markets, state government cutbacks, combined with economies that lack industrial diversity and are heavily dependent on low-wage industries, such as agriculture, will hold back job growth.” So says Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody's Economy.com, about many smaller California metros.
Behind The Numbers
We started with the 85 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the U.S. government’s Office of Management and Budget. These areas include both the cities they are named for and the geographic areas surrounding them, with populations of 500,000 or more. For this list we held up the MSAs to five evenly weighted economic measures.
First we asked Moody’s Economy.com to provide 2011 projections for job growth, as well as net in-migration, or the estimated number of people moving into (or out of) each city. Moody’s Economy.com uses a combination of data from Moody’s Analytics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau to come up with projections. Of the 15 cities where economies may get worse, only three (Bakersfield, No. 5; Sacramento, No. 7; and Jacksonville, No. 8) are projected to welcome new residents in 2011; the others will lose residents to other metros.
Job growth too was minimal in the cities that made our list, with projections of less than 1% in all but one city. That less-than-1% statistic is relative to the local unemployment rate, which we also factored into our methodology, using the most current unemployment rate available for each MSA, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a city like Stockton, Calif., where unemployment is about 18%, a job growth outlook of 0.54% promises a somewhat dismal future for job opportunities. On the other hand, Poughkeepsie, N.Y. (which ranked No. 15), boasts a 7.6% unemployment rate (well below the 9% national average) and a 0.43% job growth outlook. Employment offers a bit of good news for Poughkeepsie, but the Hudson River hub made our list for other reasons: a substantial population exodus compared with city size, a housing market that has yet to hit bottom and a significant number of mortgage loans delinquent by 90 days or more.
Lastly we used two housing-centric data points in our methodology. Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based real estate research firm, provided us with their 12-month home price outlooks for these metros. LPS Applied Analytics, a Jacksonville, Fla.-based mortgage research company that releases a monthly foreclosure report, supplied the percentage of mortgage loans currently delinquent by 90 days or more. Some of these delinquent loans will be modified or settled in short-sales, but many others will roll over into foreclosures and ultimately become bank-owned properties. It’s a process that wrecks homeowners’ credit and pushes the prices of local real estate down further. All of the cities on our list claim housing markets with a larger than average number of delinquent home loans on the books. Riverside and Stockton demonstrated some of the highest delinquency rates among the 85 MSAs we assessed.
The good news, at least housing-wise, is that most of the country appears to have hit market bottom, or come close to it. The double-digit plunging home prices and staggering foreclosure rates of the past several years seem to be subsiding--in the case of these cities, at least slowing. Riverside, for example, will see minimal gains in its home prices this year, after a 45% price drop over the past few years from its 2006 peak, according to Local Market Monitor. Even cities like Jacksonville, which ranked high on our list in terms of projected home price declines, will only see a 4% drop over the next 12 months.
It’s also worth noting that several of the big foreclosure cities remain absent from this list: namely Phoenix, Las Vegas and all of the Florida metros except Jacksonville, which ranked eighth on our list. Here’s why: While Florida home prices continue to decline in most metros, and foreclosure and delinquency rates remain high, job growth shows signs of improving, and people are beginning to move back to the Sunshine State, especially to Miami and Orlando. Indeed Phoenix skirted our list thanks in part to a bullish migration projection as well, with 19,000 additional people expected to call the Southwest metropolis home this year.
“Net migration patterns will improve this year in Phoenix, Orlando, Miami and Las Vegas due to the low cost of housing and slight gains in job growth,” explains Chen. “Job growth is expected to turn positive this year in all of these areas, for the first time since 2007.”
Las Vegas remains the top city for delinquent loans (and Nevada the top state for foreclosures) but it skirted a spot on this list, thanks to a strong migration projection as well (13,000 people are expected to move to Sin City this year). That said, Local Market Monitor expects home prices to drop another 4% over the next 12 months, and unemployment vs. job growth leaves much to be desired. Although it didn’t make our list, Vegas merits watching as a city where the economy could get worse.
1. Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA): Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 13.9%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 8.21% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% increase
2011 net migration projection: 4,110 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.69% increase
2. Stockton, Calif.
MSA: Stockton, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 18%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 7.78% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 620 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.54% increase
3. Detroit, Mich.
MSA: Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich.
Unemployment rate: 13.3%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.42% of loans
12 month home price forecast: 2% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 1,340 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.53% increase
4. Los Angeles, Calif.
MSA: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 11.7%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.53% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% increase
2011 net migration projection: 7,880 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.88% increase
5. Bakersfield, Calif.
MSA: Bakersfield-Delano, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 16.2%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 6.85% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 3% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 311 residents incoming
2011 Job growth projection: 0.21% increase
6. San Francisco, Calif.
MSA: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 10.1%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 4.17% of loans
12-month home price forecast: no change
2011 net migration projection: 3,030 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.34% increase
7. Sacramento, Calif.
MSA: Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 12.1%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.83% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 2% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 1,270 residents incoming
2011 Job growth projection: 0.55% decrease
8. Jacksonville, Fla.
MSA: Jacksonville, Fla.
Unemployment rate: 10.9%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.08% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 4% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 370 residents incoming
2011 Job growth projection: 1.39% decrease
9. Springfield, Mass.
MSA: Springfield, Mass.
Unemployment rate: 9.3%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.09% of loans
12-month home price forecast: no change
2011 net migration projection: 610 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.32% increase
10. Memphis, Tenn.
MSA: Memphis, Tenn./Miss./Ark.
Unemployment rate: 9.5%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 7.68% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 2% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 820 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.88% increase
11. Cleveland, Ohio
MSA: Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio
Unemployment rate: 8.6%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 4.82% of loans
12-month home price forecast: no change
2011 net migration projection: 2,250 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.41% increase
12. Chicago, Ill.
MSA: Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, Ill./Ind./Wisc.
Unemployment rate: 9%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 4.12% of loans
12 month home price forecast: 1% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 11,710 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.63% increase
13. Dayton, Ohio
MSA: Dayton, Ohio
Unemployment rate: 9.9%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 4.14% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 140 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.06% increase
14. New Haven, Conn.
MSA: New Haven-Milford, Conn.
Unemployment rate: 9%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 4.30% of loans
12 month home price forecast: no change
2011 net migration projection: 460 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.06% increase
15. Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
MSA: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y.
Unemployment rate: 7.6%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.25% of loans
12 month home price forecast: 1% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 1,590-plus residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.43% increase
Forbes.com