(Image via Flickr user army.mil used via a creative commons license)The good news, for Houston Cougar fans, is that I foresee the Cougars playing in a bowl this year. The bad news is that I don't think it will be the Liberty Bowl. It most certainly won't be a B(C)S bowl, at least not this year.
The reason for my concern is defense. Namely, the baby Coogs are talented, but green. For Cougar fans intent on reviving the silly "mad dogs" defensive moniker a more appropriate tag might be "mad puppy" this year. They've got some experience at linebacker and in the defensive backfield, but overall this defense is going to be young. Were the schedule not so front-loaded this wouldn't be such an important issue.
Offensively expect more of the same from Houston. They return all of their key skill-position players a year older and more familiar with coach Kevin Sumlin's system. Keenum and Beall should have huge years. For the most inspiring story Google Patrick Edwards to see what that young man is coming back from (warning: not for the faint of heart).
The Schedule:
Week 1: Northwestern State Robertson Stadium - Northwestern State isn't expected to beat Sam Houston State this year. Go tailgate, drink heavy and don't worry about falling asleep during the second half. This game will be long over by then.
Prediction: UH 47 NWSt 3
Week 2: Oklahoma State Stillwater, OK - The Pokes have too much firepower and just enough defense to win a shootout. Should be televised locally for those of you who don't want to travel to Stillwater. For those of you that do? Stop by Eskimo Joes.
Prediction: OkSt 52 UH 35
Week 3: Bye week. The Cougars will need it.
Week 4: Texas Tech Robertson Stadium - It would have been better for the Cougars to get Captain Leach and the Tortilla Pirates in game 1 or 2, before they get the timing down on that offense. As it is Houston should be on the downside of another shootout. Make sure to search Tech fans before they enter the stadium.
Prediction: Tech 42 UH 28
Week 5: University of Texas - El Paso, El Paso,TX - A week after chasing the Tortilla Pirates around UH gets the high-flying offense of the Miners. After this game UH's defense could be the among the lowest rated in the Country and still look pretty good.
Prediction: UTEP 35 UH 32
Week 6: Mississippi St., Starkville, MS - Finally, an offense that doesn't resemble an air-raid. Miss. St. is a physical, middle-of-the-road SEC team that UH should outrun. Expect pathetic "S-E-C" chants from Bulldog fans when they find themselves down in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: UH 42 Miss St 17
Week 7: Tulane: New Orleans, LA - Basically a glorified scrimmage for the Cougars as Tulane has been terrible the last few years and is showing little signs of improvement. I predict the defense starts to "get it" this week.
Prediction: UH 38 Tulane 3
Week 8: SMU: Robertson Stadium - After three weeks on the road this home game is going to be raucous (by UH standards that is). At this point the team's record might turn some off, but good things are on the horizon.
Prediction: UH 52 SMU 17
Week 9: Southern Mississippi: Robertson Stadium - Now on TV. This has the potential to be one of the games of the year in C-USA. It won't be. Defense gets it, and the offense is too good.
Prediction: UH 38 USM 14
Week 10: University of Tulsa: Tulsa OK. - This will be the game of the year in C-USA, at least in the Western division. Tulsa needs a QB, and that should propel the Cougars to the win.
Prediction: UH 47 TU 45
Week 11: University of Central Florida: Orlando, FL - After reeling off five straight the Cougars are confident, and just better than UCF. You'll have to listen to the radio to keep up with this game however, or on the ticker below whatever, more compelling, game you're watching on TV.
Prediction: UH 49 UCF 21
Week 12: Memphis, Robertson Stadium - Now your Cougars are on a roll. The Freshman aren't playing like Freshman any longer and the offense and defense are clicking on all cylinders. Memphis is supposed to be better this year, but still not good enough. And besides, Sumlin > Briles(who couldn't figure out how to consistently beat the Tigers)
Prediction: UH 42 UM 17
Week 13: Rice, Robertson Stadium - Ah the rivalry game that UH doesn't want to admit as a rivalry. Too bad too, because Rice is regaining respectability. Fortunately for Cougars fans the Owls lost too much last year. If UH is motivated (and they should be because the Western Championship should be on the line) then this game shouldn't be close.
Prediction: UH 42 Rice 10
Overall Regular Season Record: 9-3 1st place C-USA West.
I'll talk more about the C-USA championship game in a later post. For now though I think its safe to say that the Cougar train is starting to pick up some momentum. Here's the deal. I think this team is two years away from being really good. As in: "potential B(C)S Buster/undefeated record" good. What this means is that the new AD had better start to get his succession plans squared away for when the big colleges come after Sumlin. Having a coach on staff to take over the reins only makes sense for non-B(C)S programs who are going to have their coaches snapped up by big programs if they have success. As a matter of fact, I'd make it something that was contractual.
If you look at the sucess of the big non-B(C)S schools such as Boise State and Texas Christian you see a "system" in place that carries on well after the original coach that led them to prominence is gone. UH had better start thinking about that now. I've every confidence that Kevin Sumlin would be more honorable than was Art Briles when he leaves, but you still need to have a plan in place for recruiting etc.
After a rough start this should be a fun year Cougar fans, how long these winning ways last is up to your new AD.