We are 55 days away from the kickoff of the 2011 Aggie Football Season when Texas A&M will play host to the SMU Mustangs on a Sunday Night at Kyle Field.
It will be an exciting night for many. College football is here again, the epic 2011 season for Aggie Football has arrived and kicked off, and a blowout win against a nobody to begin a string of many W's in pursuit of a Big XII title.
Not so fast my friend.
If you plan on being at Kyle Field that evening and expect a cakewalk out of the Aggies over the Mustangs, prepare to be disappointed. Let me hit you with some reality.
The SMU Mustangs are entering June Jones' fourth season at the school and are coming off a 7-7 season (yes, they played 14 games, that isn't a typo) in 2010 and a loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl on their home turf. The Mustangs appear to be the favorites in the Conference USA West division as they will return 18, yes 18 starters to an experienced ball club. The Mustangs will be looking to make noise this year, and a victory over sure to be Top-15 Texas A&M at Kyle Field in the first game of the season under the lights of prime time will be at the top of their to do list.
When first talking about a June Jones' football team, you have to start with the offense and the famous Run'N'Shoot. The high-powered offense will return 10 starters that averaged 414 yards and 25.7 points per game in 2010. Leading the group is 6'4 233 pound junior quaterback Kyle Padron who will be in the 3rd year of a June Jones offense and has led the club to a bowl game in each of his first two seasons. Unprecedented at SMU since the death penalty. Kyle threw for 3838 yards last season (273.4 per game) with 31 touchdowns against 14 INTs. He also was the team's second leading rusher with 419 yards gained (a net of 244 when you count sacks) on 104 attempts with 4 rushing TDs. The team's leading rusher is 6'1 230 pound junior Zach Line who was among the NCAA leading rushers with 1494 yards on 244 attempts for a 6.1 average. Line averaged rushing a little over 100 yards a game (106.3) and scored 10 touchdowns. 5'9 senior WR Cole Beasley was a go-to option catching 87 passes from Padron last season for 1060 yards and 6 touchdowns. He will be joined in the slot by 5'10 junior Darius Johnson who was seen as the acrobatic playmaker in the group with 845 yards on 78 catches scoring 6 TDs also. Johnson was the MVP of the Armed Forces Bowl catching 9 balls for 152 yards and a touchdown. Behind the two stud receivers will be 5'10 senior Terrance Wilkerson who returns to the team after missing last season due to academics (caught 42 balls for 527 yards and 4 TDs in '09) and a bigger outside option in 6'3 237 pound senior Bradly Haynes who had 326 yards receiving and 3 TDs in 2010. Up front, the entire offensive line returns (all are seniors) and is highlighted by book-end tackles in 6'3 306 pound Kevin Beachum Jr. at left tackle and 6'5 330 pound J.T. Brooks at right tackle. The offensive line will also get a boost by 6'2 305 pound guard Josh LeRibeus returning to the team after also missing last season due to academic issues. He is penciled in as taking over the starting spot at left guard. It's no surprise to say the Mustang offense will be just as good if not better in 2011 with 10 starters returning and additions of 2010 sit-outs Terrance Wilkerson and Josh LeRibeus. Jones' offense will try to spread out the defense with 3 or 4 wide receiver sets and run right up the middle against you. Then, they will look for opportunities down the field with a big play in the passing game. Thus, the Run'N'Shoot philosophy. They're a couple of problems with the offense. It only managed 25.7 points per game last season and actually kept the Mustangs from winning more games and a Conference USA title. Most of the time, the Mustangs were able to accumulate yards, but failed to score touchdowns after either stalling in the red zone or turning the ball over. Also, over a course of a ball game the offense will wear itself down. Zach Line is the feature back., and by feature back I mean he will get nearly all of the carries in the ball game, unless Kyle Padron runs a zone read or QB keeper. And the receivers when not blocking are asked to run long routes down the field. Padron attempted over 500 passes in 2010, and the offensive line gave up only 34 sacks all year, or once every 15 passing plays. Let's remember that Conference USA isn't showcasing defensive teams. SMU gave up 5 sacks to both Texas Tech and UCF, and 4 to Washington State. Better pass rushing talent could cause the offense to sputter.
The better unit for the Mustangs was actually the defense last season that will return 8 starters after allowing a little over 350 yards per game and 25.6 points per game (only a 0.1 differential in points per game! Truly a .500 ball club) in an offense heavy Conference USA West. The Mustangs play a 3-4 defense just like the Aggies with their strength being along the defensive line. 6'6 287 pound senior DE Taylor Thompson (5.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks) is an NFL talent according to some and is joined by 6'9 295 pound junior Margus Hunt (6.5 TFL, 3.0 sacks) from Estonia (the country, not a town in Texas). The nose guard is 6'3 287 pound senior Marquis Frazier (3.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks). Two starters return to the linebacker core, and both are really good ones. 6'0 230 pound junior Taylor Reed (145 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks) led the team in tackles last season and mans the middle of the 3-4. He will be keying on stopping the run. On the outside, 6'1 220 pound junior Ja'Gared Davis is SMU's version of Von Miller, leading the team in TFL (16) and sacks (9) with 90 total tackles on the season. The secondary is led by 5'10 four year starter FS Chris Banjo who was third on the team in tackles (92, 6.5 TFL) and intercepted 2 passes. Returning starter 5'11 CB Richard Crawford led the team last season with 4 INTs. 5'11 junior S Ryan Smith also returns to round out the defense. The defense will have to replace a drop, strong side linebacker (junior Victor Jones or RS-freshman Uchenna Nwabuike could fill the role), a roaming "buck" linebacker (junior Cameron Rogers, RS-freshman John Bordano), and a starting CB (5'9 junior Keith Robinson, 5'11 sophomore Kenneth Acker).The 2010 Mustang Defense gave up on the ground 3.7 yards per carry and 24 TDs. In the air, opponents only averaged 208 yards per game, 11.4 yards per catch and 18 TDs overall on the season. The defense also recorded only 29 sacks. Where the defense was best was inside the redzone where teams scored only 82% of the time against the Mustangs, and 71% TDs allowed overall. The Mustangs have to get better in a couple of areas. They have to create more turnovers. Only 15 were forced all season long. Also, someone has to replace leader Pete Fleps at the "buck" linebacker position (123 tackles, 6.5 TFL in '10). While the secondary had some front line starters, the group lacked depth in 2010 with injuries and inexperience. They are also not tall -- only sophomore corner Chris Parks is over 6'.
The biggest weakness with the Mustangs is on special teams. Matt Szymanski, a name many Aggies will recognize, departs and leaves holes at both punter and place kicker (he handled both). It's redshirt freshman Mike Loftus' turn to handle both duties. For a team that has trouble scoring touchdowns, it's a tall task for a freshman. Even though the Mustangs have a few small, dynamic receivers at their disposal, SMU had only 22 yards per kick return and 4.9 yards per punt return. However, the Mustangs are exceptional at blocking field goals. Margus Hunt and senior DE Kevin Grenier each blocked 3 last season. Those are the type of impact plays SMU will need more of in 2011.Here is the low down on SMU Football in 2011: The Mustangs have the potential to be a very good ball club and even Conference USA champions if they correct a couple of key areas: Score in the redzone and force more turnovers than you give away. The Mustangs will move the ball against anyone, even the Wrecking Crew and the TCU Horned Frogs. But can they keep their freshman kicker off the field in pressure situations and score points of their own in support of a better-than-average defense? Also SMU has to create dynamic plays on the defensive side of the ball to help swing momentum to their ground moving offense. The Mustangs aren't going to try to pressure you -- they are very fundamental and basic as they sit in a zone defense and make a sure tackle to limit yards. But it is time to get more aggressive and imitate your other unit on the field. If they can do these things, the Mustangs are a 9-10 win team easy.
In terms of their game against Texas A&M, many are considering the contest to be a "trap game" of sorts. ESPN Big XII Blogger David Ubben, when asked, wrote about the game:
The one that jumps out to me is the season opener for Texas A&M against SMU. The Ponies are a good team, and as we’ve learned so many times, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in A&M when the lights are brightest. It sprung great upsets against Nebraska and Oklahoma last year, but when it was still in the thick of the Big 12 race early in the year, it self-destructed in the second half against Oklahoma State (giving up 28 consecutive points after leading 21-7 at half) before rallying to tie and eventually lose the game. Only when most had written the Aggies off (note: I was not one of those) did they rally and tie for a Big 12 South title.
Few people think SMU’s going to win that game, but they’re definitely capable of doing it. If A&M loses the turnover battle or opens the season flat, that game could come down to a few plays in the fourth quarter. You don’t want that in a game you should win by double digits.
While we certainly understand where Ubben is coming from, there are several disadvantages that SMU faces against Texas A&M that should be pointed out.
The talk around the game will involve the SMU high-powered offense against the A&M Wrecking Crew defense. We will take the 'Crew please. While the A&M defense certainly gave up their fair share of points against similar types of spread offenses in 2010 (38 against OSU, 27 against Tech, 30 against Baylor), the defense is built to stop the Mustangs. One of A&M's strengths in 2011 is the secondary, returning all 4 starters and depth in Dustin Harris, Lionel Smith, Steven Terrell, and Toney Hurd Jr. It will be hard for SMU to beat the Aggies deep. While A&M may give up yards between the 20's, once SMU enters the redzone the field becomes a lot shorter, and RB Zach Line is going to have trouble finding running room against a very talented Aggie defensive line, making Kyle Padron and his receivers win the game from inside the 20. With the 12th Man on top of the Mustangs at night in Kyle, we don't like Padron's chances to play a mistake free game to get the job done. To beat Tim DeRutyer's defense, the Mustangs will need long play, methodical drives picking up 4 or 5 yards per play. The offense just isn't built for that, especially if Zach Line isn't able to keep the ball moving on the ground. On offense, the Aggies will be licking their chomps to get this contest started. Coming out of fall practice, the Aggie offense will be very familiar going up against a 3-4 defense that plays zone a majority of the time. And it should even be easier for Ryan Tannehill as the Mustangs won't pressure him as Tim DeRutyer would in practice. On the ground, it will be very hard for SMU to stop the two-headed rushing attack of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, especially as the game enters the 3rd and 4th quarters. During the Armed Forces Bowl, Army wore down the defense and were pushing the defensive line around at the end, running wherever they wanted. Should be no different for an Aggie offensive line that returns 4 starters of their own. But where A&M could excel most is in the passing game. The Mustangs have nobody to matchup with 6'4 Jeff Fuller as only one SMU DB is over 6'0. The Aggies should be working the fade down the sideline to Fuller early and often. And with the no-huddle hurry up the Aggies likely will run, the depth in the secondary behind the starters will be an issue. And finally, should the game come down to a field goal, do you really want a freshman in his first college game kicking in front of 80,000+?
Yes, the SMU Mustangs should be a formidable opponent for the Aggies to open up the 2011 season. If we were ranking 2011 opponents, the Mustangs might even be in the top half! They are that good. But the Aggies are also pretty dang good and return numerous starters of their own. And all this talk of SMU being a "trap game" is non-sense. A&M won't be overlooking their first game of the season. The game could be close early on, with SMU even leading late in the 2nd quarter or going into half-time. Wouldn't surprise us. But as the sun sets on Kyle Field and cooler temperatures bring out the Spirit of the 12th Man, the Mustangs will simply be over-matched. June Jones' team has talent, but nowhere near enough talent to overtake A&M at home at Kyle. A&M should win in the end by double digits.
It's a great test to open up the season for the Aggies. But the Aggies have had all offseason to study for it, and we think they pass with flying colors.