This week rumors have swirled about Texas A&M moving out of the Big 12 and to the SEC within the next few years. Here, at Double Coverage Sports we are going to enter a three part series on the subject over the next three days. Today, we will take a look at this situation from the view of A&M, and analyze why the move has become necessary and the effect that it will have on A&M in both the long and short runs. Friday, we will examine the positives and negatives of an A&M conference jump from the point of view of the SEC. And finally Monday, we will dive further into the question of possible expansion including what other schools the SEC should pursue and how this will effect the the conference as a whole.
Texas A&M's View on the Moving to the SEC
Texas A&M's possible move to the SEC would induce a number of both positive and negative effects for the Aggies. To properly examine each we have broken them down as follows:
Positives for A&M:
1. The move to the SEC will put A&M in a healthy conference where no one team has managed to seize power from the others - Texas A&M wants to leave the Big 12 for one reason: Texas has grown too strong and is making the other members of the Big 12 feel like second class citizens. We witnessed the ill-will toward Texas last off-season when the conference lost both Colorado (to the Pac 10) and Nebraska (to the Big Ten). The departure of Colorado and Nebraska had a lot to do with Texas' belief that they needed to be compensated better than the other teams of the conference when it came to revenue sharing. Most conferences split revenue from TV contracts and bowl bids evenly. Texas decided that this situation no longer worked for them and they needed to be better compensated than the other schools. Colorado and Nebraska quickly decided to leave to the Big 12 without looking back. However, Texas A&M was not as ready to cut ties with the Big 12, since their football history was so intricately tied to the Big 12 schools that were once a part of the old Southwestern Conference (Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech). For A&M leaving the Big 12 would involve abandoning rivalries that were over 100 years old.
The straw that seems to have broken the camel's back came this year when Texas announced the launch of the Longhorns Network which would add 300 million dollars of revenue to the Texas athletic program over the next 20 years. A&M not only sees the Longhorn Network as an unfair way to generate revenue, but also as an unfair tool in terms of recruiting. In order to avoid a situation in which the Longhorns have what A&M believes to be an unfair advantage over the other teams in the league, A&M seems to be taking the initiative and looking to leave the conference to which they are so intricately attached for the SEC.
To Texas A&M, the SEC represents a conference where each team is valued equally as shown by the conference's revenue sharing agreement where each team receives the same dollar amount. As it stands right now, Texas A&M looks willing to spurn their traditionally rivalries in order to find a conference where no one school receives preferential treatment.
2. It is the ultimate "screw you" to Texas - A&M's departure from the Big 12 may represent the last block being pulled in the proverbial Jenga game that is the Big 12 conference. Since Nebraska and Colorado declared that they were leaving the Big 12, it was apparent that the conference had more trouble than the obvious misnomer that these departures created. To most experts it was apparent that the conference would cease to exist within ten years. Now, with Texas A&M seeming more eager to leave than ever, it looks as though the conference could be one or two departures away from the conference falling apart.
If the Big 12 disintegrates, Texas would be in a load of trouble. It is unlikely that another conference would ask the Longhorns join because of the Longhorn Network (which many see as an unfair recruiting and revenue generating tool). Texas would be forced to go independent which would cause a rather large headache for Longhorns. No longer would they be entitled to participate in conference revenue sharing which generated 10.2 million dollars for the Texas athletic department last season. In addition to losing around 10 million dollars, Texas would be forced to schedule opponents much like Notre Dame does. The Longhorn's would play weaker opponents without being able to rely on their conference schedule to give their season credibility. Playing inferior opponents week in and week out would not create the same buzz that competing for a conference title would. This may eventually catch up to Texas and hurt them in the long run.
3. Gives A&M a chance to attract better recruits and eventually become the premiere football team in the state of Texas - I know this statement seems outrageous, but let's examine it a little more closely. The state of Texas is one of the three largest hotbeds for football recruits (Florida and California being the others). However, many players leave the state in order to go to the SEC which in the eyes of most is the premiere collegiate football conference. If Texas A&M moves to the SEC, recruits from Texas would no longer be forced to chose between playing in the best conference (not to mention playing against top competition) and leaving their home state. Texas A&M could provide the best of both worlds for such recruits. If Texas A&M can capitalize on being the only SEC team in the state of Texas, they have the ability to pull in the states top recruits and possibly become the premier program in the state of Texas.
Negatives:
1. A&M faces the prospect of losing their traditional rivalries - A&M has longstanding rivalries in the Big 12. The Aggies rivalry with Texas is the third most played rivalry in the college football with 117 games played. But that does not even begin to tell the story of how deeply ingrained this rivalry is to the culture of each school. In fact, both schools mention the other by name in their fight songs with the majority of Texas A&M's song being directed at their in-state rivals. Texas A&M will also lose rivalries with Baylor (who they have played 107 times), Texas Tech (who they have played 67 times), Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.
To put their departure into perspective picture Tennessee, Auburn, or Ole Miss leaving the SEC. Tennessee would leave behind rivalries with Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Florida. Auburn would not be able to play LSU, Georgia, and Alabama on an annual basis. And Ole Miss would be forced to do without playing Vanderbilt, Arkansas, LSU and State every season.
Although a few of the rivalries could be salvaged with out-of-conference games, it would be difficult (if not impossible) for A&M to schedule even three of their traditional rivals. And the ones that could be salvaged would not have the same feel as an in-conference rivalry games with the possibility of a conference title on the line.
2. A&M may be a bottom feeder for a few years - It may be a few years before Texas A&M really makes the most of being in the SEC and starts to become a top tier destination for recruits. In the mean time, they may be forced to take their lumps from the already established SEC powers. To get a better feel for this let's assume that A&M and an ACC team were added to the SEC for the 2011 season. (We will assume an ACC team was added in order to avoid a reshuffling of the divisions.) In this scenario, it is difficult to see the Aggies finishing any better than fifth or sixth in the West. For their first few years, it seems apparent that A&M will be relegated to the bottom of the SEC West. However, if they can ride those years out I believe that A&M will eventually become a solid contender in the SEC.
If you can think of anymore positives or negatives from the point of view of the Aggies feel free to drop a comment and let us know what you think.
Part Two of our three part series on Texas A&M to the SEC will be up Friday. In part two, we will examine the effects of adding Texas A&M to the SEC from the point of view of the SEC.